Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Demographics of the 2008 election

Religious breakdown of voters using polls in the weeks leading up to the election:

Obama-McCain
74-22 Jews link

50-28 Atheists & Agnostics link

50-34 Latino Protestants PDF
In 2004 Bush carried 63% of the Latino Protestant
vote, this a major reversion to the mean

49-41 White Catholics link

49-45 Mainline Protestants link

25-68 Evangelicals link link

The Barna Research Group did its' own polling defining Evangelical in strict terms, instead of allowing respondents to self-identify. The BRG poll results are somewhat different from other poll data and are thus noted but not included in the data. link link

The tables below are from a blogpost on Steve Sailer's iSteve blog.
Votes by race:
---------------------Obama------McCain-------Other
White (75%)
43%
55%
2%


African-American (13%)
96%
4%
N/A


Latino (8%)
67%
31%
2%


Asian (2%)
63%
33%
4%


Other (3%)
66%
31%
3%
A Republican can't win with just 55% of the white vote. Bush got 58% in 2004 and won, but only 54% and lost the popular vote in 2000. And the bar keeps inching up every four years.

And here's the famous Gender Gap, which CNN lists first out of all demographic measures:

Vote by Sex
---------------------Obama------McCain-------Other
Male (47%)
49%
49%
2%


Female (53%)
55%
43%
2%



And here's the not so famous Marriage Gap:

Vote by Marital Status
---------------------Obama------McCain-------Other
Married (66%)
46%
52%
2%


Unmarried (34%)
65%
33%
2%



So, Obama did only six points better among women than among men, but he did 19 points better among singles than among marrieds.

10 comments:

Indra Maghavan said...

How that babykiller wins the White Catholic vote is beyond me. What a travesty.

Nice initial post, btw. I look forward to reading more.

Indra Maghavan said...

Sorry, should have explained more in he previous post. Just announced today: his first two acts as President will be to allow the use of fetuses in scientific experimentation, and to allow federal agencies to promote abortion.

Ronduck said...

This is the same church that won't excommunicate Ted Kennedy. Ted has been a zealous supporter of abortion, stem cell research and illegal(Catholic)immigration to America. Since they still give him communion there must be something he is doing that the hierarchy approves of.

Unfrench Frenchman said...

About Hispanic immigration: even if some border states became entirely Hispanicized it is doubtful if a majority of the Hispanics that lived there would want those states to be made part of Mexico so that they would be returned to the same misery they or their ancestors were in before emigrating to the US.

Ronduck said...

They may not benefit individually, but as a group they are working to win the Southwest back for Mexico. Many of the Hispanics talk of reconquering the Southwest for Mexico, and many of the them wear Mexican pride t-shirts, even if they are US citizens. You need to remember that in the Mexican school system the Mexican-American war is central to explaining modern Mexico. All history is made to revolve around this one war, with all of Mexico's current ailments either blamed on the war, on the evil gringo oppressor.

Also, the Democratic party uses the same ethnic pandering they use with US Blacks, with similar results. I believe that in any election the Mexican-Americans vote 2 to 1 for the Democratic party, which is only slightly behind the 95% that Blacks give the Democratic party.

Unfrench Frenchman said...

Well, these matters are sometimes more complex than they seem. Take for instance Quebec. It has a large majority of French speakers, most of which support the language and culture protectionist policies that have been implemented there for the last four decades. The descendents of French immigrants, the "pure laine" majority, even invited in plenty of fellow "French speakers" from the Third World in the hopes that they would vote for independence in referendums and help cleansing Quebec of its anglophone presence. Well, they haven't. On the contrary, those recent immigrants overwhelmingly vote AGAINST secession, and their increasing weight means that secession will probably never happen. I am quite certain that those Mexican immigrants who dream of returning border states to Mexico will encounter huge difficulties should they ever start trying, and these difficulties will not only be of a military nature. There may be a visible, loud minority of secessionists among Chicanos, but there are also plenty of assimilated second or third generation Hispanics in non-border states who will certainly never support giving back any bit of US territory to Mexico.

Ronduck said...

One of the goals of the Democratic party is to stop assimilation. This means that they work to have ballots printed in Spanish and have the public schools teach bilingual education so that the children never lose the connection to Spanish.

Also, one of Obama's unstated goals is to give amnesty to the estimated 30 million illegals that are in the US so that they can begin to vote for the left now before they assimilate in 3 generations.

Unfrench Frenchman said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Unfrench Frenchman said...

"One of the goals of the Democratic party is to stop assimilation."

This may be true, but it is just as difficult to slow down assimilation as it is to speed it. Language and cultural assimilation has its own logic that cannot be easily distorted by mere bilingual programs.

Ronduck said...

Unfrench,

Some of the rot in the Church in your native France is because the French state has power of who the Vatican appoints as bishop. Here is the article on Wikipedia detailing the treaty between the Vatican and the French state. I originally posted the comment here

Since I was ranting on your blog about the church I thought I would contribute something relevant to the decline of France.